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03/06/2021

MAYBE IT’S BEST TO KEEP YOUR MONEY IN YOUR POCKET!
Saturday 5th June sees the running of the 234th Epsom Derby in the UK and what a stellar line up we have again. There are currently nineteen runners with probably only four “no hopers” – what a staggeringly good field for this challenging mile and half on turf – on a proper racecourse.
I have spent a considerable amount of time trying to find the likely winner – but with no confidence that I have.
Consider the sire line up…
Galileo – 5 runners with Bolshoi Ballet and High Definition topping the boards
Sea the Stars – 3 runners with the best being Third Realm
New Approach – has Mac Swiney, winner of the Irish 2,000 Guineas – out of a Teofilo mare – should stay. Jim Bolger in charge of affairs – don’t ignore this one.
Teofilo – has Gear Up from the Mark Johnston yard – it beat Bolshoi Ballet last year but disappointed in the Dante at York
Camelot – 2 runners – with Sir Lamorak the better of the two – out of a Giants Causeway mare, it should be tough
Dubawi – no Derby would be complete by something from this great sire. One Ruler is out of a Sharmadal mare and thus will be tough.
Australia is the son of Galileo and the great race mare Ouija Board – but Seattle Sound is badly performed and should not be in the race
American Pharoah – top dog from the States – but despite my feelings about US blood, this sire was selected by J Magnier – where the J stands for Jenius! Van Gogh, out of a Sadlers Wells mare must have a great chance – and is the most experienced horse in the field with 9 runs under his belt
Frankel – finally – 4 runners – all with some sort of chance. Whilst this sire gets all the best mares he has yet to sire a Derby winner – could this be the year? Of his runners, I have to say Mohaafeth as the credentials for me. His dam is French Dressing, a Sea the Stars mare which is what I think Frankel horses need to get them beyond 10 furlongs (2,000m) But there again there is John Leeper, son of Snow Fairy that won the proper Oaks at Epsom in 2010 – more staying blood.
So there you have it. I am no help to you at all!
Look to see which one Ryan Moore choses to ride and have a bit on that. Then for places… well I think Mark Johnston will definitely be trying (remember Dee Ex Be) with Gear Up at 33/1. Van Gogh at 16/1 is a good bet and finally, Third Realm at 12/1 might give this Sea the Stars c**t some glory.
Or use a pin.
The Oaks
Fourteen fillies line up for the Oaks – I strongly fancied Santa Barbara for the 1,000 Guineas and she disappointed me. I expect her to make amends on Friday 4th June.

With the possibility of racing at Borrowdale this weekend under threat from Covid related issues, at least we have some great racing at Epsom to make up for anything going wrong here

10/05/2021

OOZING WITH QUALITY – DRIPPING WITH CLASS
For true racing enthusiasts, the 2,000 Guineas to be run over a straight mile on turf at Newmarket on 1st May 2021 is mouth wateringly exciting.
First run on 18th April 1809 for the said sum (a guinea being 21 shillings in old UK money) and won by a c**t called Wizard, ridden by Bill Clift and trained by Tom Perren for Christopher Wilson, the 2,000 Guineas, (along with the 1,000 Guineas for 3 year old fillies) was the brain child of Sir Charles Bunbury who had earlier co-founded the Derby at Epsom. These three races – together with Oaks and St Leger - became known as the Classics and have provided a format for other racing centres throughout the world – though few have much clue about maintaining rigorous adherence to the distance principles – but you know my feelings on this subject!
This year’s renewal is oozing with quality and dripping with class. Before final declarations were known, I spotted Sayf Al Dawla quoted at 66 to 1. It hasn’t had a run yet! But look at its breeding, gob-smacking in the extreme. It’s by Frankel who won the race in 2011 – out of Attraction the four time Group 1 winner which won the 1,000 Guineas for Mark Johnston in 2004. Sadly he was not in the final acceptors – but look out for him soon.
That is just the tip of the quality mountain – everyone with a legitimate claim for participation. Colts by the stellar stallions Galileo, Siyouni, Dubawi, Zoffany, Dawn Approach and even Starspangled Banner plus all the usual owners and trainers. Where to begin to find the winner? All complicated by the paucity of form, something which is common amongst this class of horse – they don’t run too often.
A good pointer to future Guineas winners is the Darley Dewhurst which is run at the back end of the two year old season, over 7 furlongs (1,400m) and last year was won – on soft going - by the Aiden O’Brien entry St Mark’s Basilica (Siyouni) with other entrants, Wembley (Galileo) second and Thunder Moon (Zoffany) in third place. But these three finished in the exact reverse order a month earlier at the Curragh – on good going – so I am not sure if this form helps us much. Maybe the extra furlong of the Guineas will help St Mark’s Basilica who ran on well in the soft going of the Dewhurst. There again, Wembley will appreciate the rising ground in the last couple of furlongs. Not easy – and at the time of writing we don’t know which one Ryan Moore will elect to ride!
Van Gogh is an interesting sort – by American Pharoah – one of those American sires I just would not give the time of day. But as it was chosen by maestro/genius John Magnier then that’s good enough for me. At 12 to 1 it’s not a hot property but it’s won two of its seven starts, most recently over a mile in heavy ground at St Cloud in France – so should not be written off.
Charlie Appleby has three Dubawi (now aged 19 years) c**ts entered. Pundits do not require me to sing the praises of this sire – from the Mr Prospector line – through Dubai Millenium. To me he is right up there with Galileo (aged 23 years) and how blessed we are to have both stallions standing at the same time - though both are getting very long in the tooth and may soon be retired.
Quite whether Guineas entries One Ruler, Master of the Seas or Naval Crown will come up to the standards of Ghaiyyath, Too Darn Hot or Monterosso remains to be seen – but they might. Of the three, I think I favour One Ruler out of the Sharmadal mare, Fintry a five time winner in England and France. I like Sharmadal mares which carry his courage and fortitude – in his kind of distance races, a mile.
Having said that, Naval Crown has some considerable appeal. Out of the Dansili mare, Come Alive, this c**t has already run three times this season – so will certainly be fit. Significantly for me, he has already won a race over a mile on turf at the toy track that is Meydan, beating Master of the Seas – and he did it in 1 minute 36.5 seconds – that is just the sort of time the Guineas is typically run in when the going is good – as I expect it to be this coming weekend. If you want a good outside bet – at 66 to 1 - this might be the one.
There is more money for Master of the Seas which recently won the Craven Stakes over a mile at Newmarket on good to firm going (15th April). However, despite the fast going his time was not too clever – 1 minute 38.8 seconds – to me that is just not good enough.
Finally I draw attention to Mutasaabeq (William Buick) – supplemented into the field for £30,000 on Monday! He recently creamed a 7 furlong race at the Craven meeting – and in a very fast time. By Invincible Spirit out of 1,000 Guineas winner Ghanaati (Giants Causeway) this c**t must be in with a big chance – especially as Jim Crowley has the mount.
I am pretty certain the winner will come out of those I have mentioned but trying to narrow the options to a serious tip is not easy. I tend to favour Aiden O’Brien – just on his own pedigree with the Guineas – and of his runners I am going to tip Wembley to score, purely because Galileo still has what it takes. For the minor places I am going to suggest One Ruler, Mutasaabeq and Naval Crown. However, I might tweak my decision when I know which O’Brien c**t Moore decides to ride
And for the 1,000 Guineas on Sunday, Aiden will almost certainly make it a double on the weekend with Santa Barbara – has to be a nap selection.
History will be made this weekend at Newmarket – the first two Classics – oozing with quality, dripping with class – horse racing at its very best – if you can’t be there, WATCH.

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