Jon Ritter at Ritter Mortgage Group

📊 The Fed held rates steady yesterday, as expected. The dot plot wasn't.

Nine of the 18 officials now project at least one hike before year-end — the median year-end projection moved from 3.4% to 3.8%. Traders went from pricing a 27% chance of a September hike before the meeting to 49% after it.

→ Warsh said “price stability” 12 times and described the committee as “unanimous and unambiguous.” He also withheld his own projection from the dot plot — consistent with his long-held position that the SEP isn’t a useful policy tool. So half the committee is on record for a hike, but the new chair hasn’t shown his hand.
→ The Iran deal Monday drove oil down 5% — a disinflationary signal pointing toward lower rates longer-term. The hawkish dot plot is pulling the other direction. Right now the bond market is following the Fed.
→ 30-year is at 6.51% today, ticked up from 6.48% last week.

Have a timely housing situation? Let’s discuss the rate strategy now, and work through it together.

📊Oil fell more than 5% today and stocks jumped on news that the US and Iran reached a deal to end the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The Fed meets this week, Tuesday and Wednesday — Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair. His remarks will be important for signals of how the Fed approaches the rest of the year given the progress on Iran.

→ Recap: Last week's inflation report came in at 4.2% due to energy prices.
→ A hold from the Fed was already the expectation before today, and the Strait reopening isn't expected to change that — the inflation impact from the conflict is already in the data, at least short-term.
→ What we're watching: when the cheaper oil will show up in the data, and how it will impact the Fed's next meeting in September.
→ As of last week, the 30-year averaged 6.48%.

Have a timely housing situation? - Let's discuss the rate strategy now, and work through it together.

📊 Here's where things stand on rates and the market heading into this week — and there's more going on beneath the surface than the headline reflect:

➡️ The 30-year fixed average ticked down slightly, coming in at 6.48% as of June 4 (Freddie Mac) — down from 6.53% the week prior. The move followed Friday's May jobs report. Jobs clearly aren't what is moving the markets, yet.

➡️ That report: 172,000 jobs added in May — more than double the 80,000 economists expected. Sounds like a hot labor market. But when we looked at where those jobs actually came from — leisure and hospitality added 70,000, local government added 55,000. Those two sectors alone made up most of the gain.

➡️ Wage growth came in at 3.4% year-over-year. PCE inflation is running at 3.8%. Real wages are still slightly negative. Markets are pricing in a hold at the June 16–17 FOMC at better than 95% probability — the benchmark currently sits at 3.50–3.75%.

➡️ The number worth watching this week: May CPI on Wednesday, June 11. It's the last major inflation print before the Fed meets. Depending on what it shows, rates could move in either direction.

➡️ Here's what's actually driving the rate picture right now. Iran halted its strikes on Israel this weekend, saying Israel had "learned a lesson" — but stated explicitly: if Israel attacks southern Lebanon, strikes resume. Earlier last week Iran had suspended US negotiations entirely when Israel threatened Hezbollah in Beirut. Trump reportedly had a heated exchange with Netanyahu. Iran came back to the table. Trump said this weekend a deal on the Strait of Hormuz and an extended ceasefire is reachable "over the next week."

➡️ That chain is what's holding rates where they are: Lebanon is the tripwire, the Strait of Hormuz is the oil lever, and oil is what's feeding inflation. If a deal closes, there's room for rates to ease. If Lebanon escalates, the reverse.

If you're thinking through timing on a purchase or refi, we're around. Happy to talk through your situation.

📊 Here's where things stand on rates this week — with a lot still unresolved:

➡️ The 30-year fixed came down to around 6.45%, from 6.53% last week. The move wasn't Fed-driven. It came from oil markets responding to ceasefire progress — which means it can reverse just as fast.

➡️ The tentative Iran deal isn't signed. This morning Iran paused negotiations. That's why rates ticked back up slightly today — the market is trading the same headline in both directions.

➡️ PCE inflation hit 3.8% annually in April — the highest since May 2023. Core is at 3.3%. The Fed has no room to ease, and a rate hike is now priced as more likely than a cut by year-end.

➡️ The May jobs report drops Friday. Wage growth is the number that matters — it's one of the few remaining inputs the Fed is watching closely before the June 17 meeting.

If you're weighing a move this summer and have questions, please reach out. We're happy to talk through your situation.