Dennis Prost - CFP RF

MARKET UPDATE 7.1.2025

According to Avi Gilburt of ElliottWaveTrader.com, “…we still cannot make any reasoned or reliable assessments as to whether that decline is going to be the start of a much bigger decline pointing to the 3500-3800 SPX region in a more direct fashion, or if the decline will be corrective and setting us up for one more rally into the end of the year.”

With that said, I’ll list recent reports that support Mr. Gilburt’s cautious statement:

New Home Sales Down

In May, we witnessed the largest drop in home sales since 6.2022, down 13.7%.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-new-home-sales-fall-more-than-expected-may-inventory-rises-2025-06-25/

Gross Domestic Product Declined

The first quarter real GDP has been revised to the annual rate 0.5%, where in the 2024 fourth quarter we had a 2.4% increase.
https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2025-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and-corporate-profits

Retail Sales Fell

Retail Sales fell 0.9%, which includes autos. However, online sales saw an increase of 0.9%, various retailers rose 2.9%, as well as furniture sales which were up 1.2%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/17/retail-sales-may-2025

Initial Jobless Claims Fell

As of June 21, the number of citizens applying for unemployment fell 246,000 to 236,000. As of June 14, continuing Jobless Claims rose by 37,000.
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-fell-to-236k-last-week-202506261237

Durable Goods Orders Swelled

Durable Goods (lasting more than 3 years) new orders increased 16.4% last month. This typically represents faith in the economy.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/26/durable-goods-orders-surge-16-4-in-may

US Economy

Per some economists, the Fed may reduce its key rate 2 more times in the next 6 months.
https://apnews.com/article/inflation-trump-economy-federal-reserve-43fd4506f5303537bb0ef8c34fb18112

In light of the recent reports, I have increased the client portfolios to 40-60% in Fixed Income. I am also investing in shorter term trades to take advantage of the volatility in the market.

The US economy is in a good place, but the Federal Reserve is not The U.S. economy is mostly in good shape but that isn’t saving Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell from a spell of angst.

WEEK IN REVIEW

Market Recap and General Outlook

o Tech and semiconductor stocks led the market to the upside this week
o Top 10 High-Caps % of market capitalization chart
o Mega-Caps extreme overbought charts
o Leading Economic Indicator vs SPX disparity chart
o These charts indicate that corrective forces will likely hit very soon and could be very sharp to the downside
o Projecting 1% potential upside vs 10% potential downside in coming months

Index and Bond Updates
o Indexes gained around 1% for the week
o 30-Year bond market lost 2.25 points
o 10-Year yields are up 14 basis points
o Gold lost around $18
o Silver is down around 18 cents
o The dollar is likely to chop for a few weeks before a downside move
o Oil is up over $4

STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS

• S&P 500 (SPX)
o Getting into a period of risk, likely to correct – Weekly chart
o The best case projection on the downside is around $4800, $4650 is more likely – Weekly chart
o Correction low timing is projected around mid March – April – Weekly chart
o Monthly chart projects a correction into spring before another move up through the summer/late year
o The risk/reward is not great to the upside
o Risks are increasing of sharp jumps in the VIX 2024-2026
That’s the show for this week!
________________________________________
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Askslim.com, Inc. owns and operates the website known as: www.askslim.com. All of the information on www.askslim.com is solely for entertainment, informational and educational purposes only and is not investment or trading advice. None of the information on the Website or in emails is guaranteed to be accurate, complete, useful or timely.
Please go askslim.com for the full disclaimer, terms and conditions and privacy policy.

________________________________________
The information above is shared from Askslim.com and is not the opinion of VIMA, LLC.

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WEEK IN REVIEW

Market Recap and General Outlook
• The stock market was under steady pressure this week
• Interest rates and China economic problems weighed on the market
• Retail sales were strong in the US and the economy is still growing, still inflation risk
• A resumption of the bond bear market is likely
• Important lows for the bond marker are likely not until 2024
• If stocks fall big money will temporarily move into the bond market
• Downside pressure is significant in the stock market, selling opportunity didn’t occur
• Projecting a low in the stock market around mid – October
• There is potential for a 13% drop in the stock market

Index and Bond Updates
• Major indexes are down 2% – 4%
• 30-Year bond market is down 1.5 points
• 10-Year yields gained 6 basis points
• Gold is down $23 for the week
• The dollar gained .5%
• Oil is down $3.30, likely to go under $76

STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS

MidCap 400 ETF (MDY)
• Projecting a decline into October to around $457 – $445 – Weekly chart
• In a negative condition – Weekly chart
• There is likely to be a bounce before moving to the downside again – Daily chart

Russell 2000 Index (RUT)
• Momentum turned negative – Daily chart
• Projecting a bounce to around $1908 that fails – Daily chart

S&P 500 (SPX)
• The cycle trough is in mid – October – Weekly chart
• Could see a decline under $4000
• Best case decline is likely around $4200 – Weekly chart
• Momentum is negative – Weekly & daily charts
• A rebound would likely go to $4400 – $4410 before turning back down – Daily chart

That’s the show for this week!
________________________________________
DISCLAIMERS
Askslim.com, Inc. owns and operates the website known as: www.askslim.com. All of the information on www.askslim.com is solely for entertainment, informational and educational purposes only and is not investment or trading advice. None of the information on the Website or in emails is guaranteed to be accurate, complete, useful or timely.
Please go askslim.com for the full disclaimer, terms and conditions and privacy policy.

________________________________________
The information above is shared from Askslim.com and in not the opinion of VIMA, LLC.