UADA Stone County Extension

👀Lengthy post but worth the read for our cattle producers.

Thoughts on New World Screwworm Impacts by Extension Agriculture Economist, James Mitchell.

The New World Screwworm detection in Texas on June 3, 2026, is an important animal health issue, but it does not change the fact that U.S. cattle inventories remain at their lowest level since 1951. Current cattle prices are being driven by historically tight cattle supplies. The biggest economic risk is not the current case itself, but the potential for additional detections, movement restrictions, or disruptions to cattle trade that could affect how cattle move through the supply chain.

1. The NWS case in Texas is a localized animal health issue, not a national cattle supply issue.
🔹The immediate impact on cattle supply is likely very small. The statement below from APHIS references a 20 km quarantine zone. While very significant for those directly affected, the impact on the overall quantity of cattle moving will be minor. If additional cases are confirmed, or the nature of the quarantine zone changes, this supply impact could grow. But I think the supply impact is very small at this point. https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/usda-confirms-presence-new-world-screwworm-united-states
🔹However, a single localized case does not materially change U.S. cattle supplies or beef production.
🔹Fundamentally, markets are likely to react more to changes in animal movement restrictions, eradication efforts, or additional detections than to the initial case itself.
🔹Over the next several days, futures markets will likely continue treading on headlines, uncertainty, and changing expectations regarding the scope of the NWS situation.
🔹In the short term, expect heightened market volatility as traders react to new information

2. U.S. cattle inventories remain historically tight and current cattle prices reflect years of herd contraction.
🔹U.S. cattle inventories totaled 86.2 million head on January 1, the lowest since 1951.
🔹Beef cow inventories have declined for six consecutive years.
🔹Feeder cattle, fed cattle, and calf prices are being driven primarily by limited supplies and strong consumer demand.
🔹The factors supporting cattle prices today existed before the NWS detection and remain in place afterward.

3. The biggest economic risk is disruption to cattle movement.
🔹If NWS were to spread and require broader movement restrictions, marketing costs could increase.
🔹Depending on future developments and USDA policy, delays in moving cattle could affect basis levels, regional price relationships, and marketing timing.

4. Potential to impact current ban on live cattle imports from Mexico.
🔹Mexico supplies a significant number of feeder cattle to the United States each year.
🔹The southern border has remained closed, with a few brief reopenings in 2025, since November 2024. This has had major impacts on the Texas cattle feeding sector and local feeder cattle markets.
🔹Reduced imports generally support feeder cattle prices in the short run by limiting available supplies.
🔹A decision to resume livestock imports from Mexico would not immediately restore import volumes to previous levels. Reopening would likely occur through a phased approach with continued oversight and movement controls.
🔹Pre-NWS, roughly 4-5% of our feeder cattle supply was imported from Mexico. If imports were allowed again, I don’t expect that type of volume because Mexico has begun finishing and processing more cattle domestically. But the value differences are such that cattle would start moving into the US from the South again. This would have a supply impact and likely a price response.

5. What would change the short-term market outlook?
🔹I would have lost a bet on this today. I expected the futures market to trade the headline and be limit down today. I did not expect live cattle and feeder cattle futures to be higher today, let alone be up as much as they were. The trading range on August feeders was wide, and we sure tested some much lower levels, but we closed with substantial gains. I think two things are worth noting here.
🔹First, I think this was largely priced into the markets already. There had been several cases very close to the US border in the last couple of weeks, and futures had dropped a great deal since early May.
🔹Second, the market may be pricing in a potential decrease in supply if additional cases are confirmed. I maintain that it would take a lot of those to truly move the needle on supply, but I also think we would be naïve to think this is all that will be seen this summer.

Read more on this emerging situation from Mitchell:
https://www.uaex.uada.edu/media-resources/news/2026/june/06-04-ark-screwworm-economics.aspx

Attention Producers looking to know more about High Tunnels. An excellent educational opportunity is coming to North Central Arkansas.

North Central AR High Tunnel Workshop will be Tuesday June 23rd will start in Mountain View, AR and end in Shirley, AR.

Registration: https://uada.formstack.com/forms/high_tunnel