SomaBull
05/01/2022
The FOMC announcement and press conference will be held on Wednesday, May 4. Unless the Fed announces something completely unexpected, it could be a de-risking event for stocks and the S&P 500 and S&P 500 ETFs (NYSEARCA: SPY). The VIX, which measures implied volatility, is currently trading around 33, which is Indicating that the options market is pricing in a near 2.1% daily swing in the S&P 500.
A fall in the VIX indicates that implied volatility levels are falling, which would lead to a rapid devaluation of put options. The decay in value of put options is likely to cause traders and investors to sell put options they may have acquired ahead of the FOMC meeting. Selling these put options will cause market makers to over-hedge and will cause market makers to start buying S&P 500 futures, providing a tailwind for the index to rise.
Since the end of 2021, the S&P 500 ETF has seen a sharp rise following the FOMC meeting, while the market has fallen sharply after the FOMC minutes. Unless the Fed does something completely unexpected, I think there's a good chance the cycle will continue with the S&P 500 after the meeting, for the reasons outlined above.
The VIX is typically lower around the time of the FOMC minutes and higher before the FOMC meeting. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, the VIX once again found itself trading at high levels
That could help generate a rebound after the session. Still, any rebound is likely to be short-lived, as the fundamentals of the S&P 500 ETF and the broader stock market are deteriorating; as higher rates compress, P/E ratios and earnings are likely to be lower. .
04/25/2022
Given Apple's growth prospects, Wall Street is very concerned about Apple's stock buybacks. Apple's overall earnings are healthy in these tough times for tech stocks, which makes Wall Street see Apple even more as a reliable tech stock like the Giant Rock of Gibraltar
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