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looks like Mandi will be in the purple. No way shes coming to work on Friday!!

It's going to take a miracle at this point for there "not" to be snow Friday.

Lots of (snowy) ground to cover so here we go.

This is an unusual event for a few reasons. Lets cover those first.

#1 - Its cold in the south. Like REAL cold. That's not the norm for one of these events. Normally, we're warmer than normal and waiting on that cold air to arrive as the rain is exiting (just happened days ago). THIS time? Its cold ... staying cold ... and going to still be cold. Now we just need some water. More on that in a moment.

#2 - Those models we always talk about? The weather models? They've actually been in (relatively) close agreement on things for a few days now. Normally, they like to argue and give different solutions to the weather question. This time, they've stayed pretty much in-step with one another (with some small discrepancies).

So what's the real issue here?

Well, we've established its already cold. That part of the equation is set. Next is "where's the water going?"

We're expecting a low-pressure cell to kick out of Texas moving east. This is going to begin scooping up water from the Gulf of Mexico and throwing that snow-fuel our way. It's known as PWAT (Precipitable Water). It forecasts where the fuel for the event is going to be. Which leads to the critical question: WHERE EXACTLY WILL IT TRACK?

That bit of forecasting - update by update - has changed a little each time (which is totally normal).

And those bit-by-bit changes adjust the forecast on "how much" snow will fall and "where". And thats exactly what everyone wants to know.

So - lets get to it.

A) Will it snow? and

😎 How much is coming?

So heres my answer with all the data I've got to work with. Keep in mind I'm now a full time Financial Advisor who works hard with a talented team investing for our beloved clients.

But I love weather too and y'all know I love you so based on all the information available as of now here we go.

A) Will it snow? Yes. Everyone even close to Memphis is going to see some snow fall on Friday. It's possible some begins to fall late Thursday night, but more likely it begins to arrive between midnight and 4am Friday morning. Then its going to continue for a while Friday, likely ending Friday afternoon/evening.

😎 How much will fall? As always ... this is going to depend on where you live. It looks like more than a dusting everywhere. In fact, I've kinda kept quiet about it because the totals have been so dramatic for days that I didn't want to post them. ((If you tell people there could be between 1" and 7" of snow? All they hear is Charlie Brown's teacher say "wah wah, wah wah wah 7 INCHES OF SNOW".)) So knowing we'll still some tweaks to that path of water, let's go ahead and make some predictions.

I think Memphis has the potential for 3-4+" of snow (5" isn't out of reach). That's a lot for us. And it's going to have a pretty decent impact if it happens that way. (I'm one of those who hopes it does).

I think north Mississippi sees more than everyone else. Unless new data changes between now and Thursday, every model run has kept the lion's share of water tracking across north MS (which would lead to higher snowfall totals).

I think we'll see our Winter Storm Watch upgraded Thursday (at the latest) to a Winter Storm Warning (which means, hey folks: stay home and off the roads).

I think schools will be out Friday and that a lot of businesses will close as well. And I think it will be so cold this weekend ... and judging from our past experiences ... that I wouldn't be surprised to see school closed Monday (or longer?) as well. That will depend on roads.

Temps stay so cold into this weekend (and really next week) that it's going to be hard for this stuff to really disappear .... and with overnight lows falling back into the 20's? Whatever melts will have a strong chance at just becoming ice by morning time.

So there you have it.

I'll leave you with this. I've been forecasting Memphis weather for over 25 years now and our snow forecasts are NOTORIOUS for changing their plans at the last minute. (I'll try to update this one Wednesday or Thursday if some new crazy data comes in.)

But as of right now? This is what I would plan on.

Stay safe ... STAY WARM ... and if I get my wish?

We'll all get to build a snowmane this weekend.

We want our technicians safe as well as our customers. Stay inside if you can. While we watch the weather and decide on Friday morning whether we will be open or closed.

SNOW WAY ❄️ Memphians can expect to see at least two or three inches of snow fall in their backyards Friday and into the weekend. Some areas may see as much as eight inches. fox13.tv/41ZTC2x