Benjamin Mathews

”1.4% increase in median existing-home sales price to $408,800.”

Source: https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-3-6-decrease-in-march

Interest rates closed lower this week for the third consecutive week.

Headline whiplash dropped WTI to $86/bbl. For now, it appears the Straight of Hormuz is open for business. Peace talks will continue over the weekend. There is 29% chance of a peace deal within the next week according to Polymarket.

Existing Home Sales slumped -3.6% in March at an annualized pace of 3.98MM.

PPI confirmed the same story as CPI last week. Headline inflation is up due to increasing energy costs (+0.5% MoM) while core inflation continues to come in below expectations (+0.1% MoM). Final Demand Services was 0.0% in March. If the Straight of Hormuz truly is open, one might expect the core inflation figures to remain low enough for the Fed to resume rate cuts. Powell’s term will be up in 28 days and a new Fed Chair would likely be eager to deliver rate cuts. Fed Funds Futures have improved steadily. December 2026 currently has a 65% chance of a 25 bps rate cut.