Val Simpson WX

Melissa continues to crawl along at a slow pace, steadily gaining strength. The storm is feeding off above-average sea surface temperatures, which are helping it intensify.

The National Hurricane Center now expects Melissa to reach Category 4 strength by Monday.

Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend, bringing a risk of flash flooding and numerous landslides.

Tropical Storm Melissa Update:

Melissa's path remains complex. Over the next couple of days, the storm is expected to slow down and gradually shift northwest, then north... bringing it very close to the southwestern tip of Haiti and Jamaica by Thursday.

Beyond that point, forecast models diverge significantly. Some suggest a northeastward turn, while others indicate a stall or westward drift due to a developing ridge to the north.

Although Melissa will remain over very warm waters, potential vertical wind shear and nearby dry air could impact its development. Because the storm’s future track is uncertain, its intensity remains difficult to predict.

Heavy rainfall is expected, posing a serious risk of flash flooding and landslides in parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Residents of Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor this system closely.

SUNDAY AM TROPICAL UPDATE:

“Melissa” might form in the Caribbean by the middle to the end of this week.

Right now, Invest 98L is located a couple hundred miles east of the Windward Islands, producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.

It’s still very disorganized and doesn’t have a closed circulation as it moves westward.

Once it reaches the Caribbean, environmental conditions will become more conducive for development. One key ingredient? Warmer than average sea surface temperatures… acting like fuel for potential tropical systems.

As of the latest update, the NHC gives it a 60% chance of development. But since it hasn’t formed yet, we can’t pinpoint strength or track just yet.

Right now, models are all over the place… some take it toward Central America, others suggest a possible northward turn. Once a defined center of circulation develops, model consensus will improve and we’ll have a clearer picture of its steering pattern.

Still, there’s plenty of time to watch. While it’s not a threat to the U.S. at this time, the islands should keep a close eye on it.


Melissa” podría formarse en el Caribe entre mediados y finales de esta semana.

En este momento, Invest 98L se encuentra a unos cientos de millas al este de las Islas de Barlovento, generando una amplia zona de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas.

Por ahora está muy desorganizado y aún no tiene una circulación cerrada, mientras se mueve hacia el oeste.

Una vez que llegue al Caribe, las condiciones ambientales serán más favorables para su desarrollo. Uno de los ingredientes clave son las temperaturas del mar más cálidas de lo normal, que actúan como combustible para los sistemas tropicales.

Según la última actualización, el Centro Nacional de Huracanes le da un 60% de probabilidad de desarrollo. Pero como todavía no se ha formado, no se puede definir su intensidad ni su trayectoria.

Actualmente, los modelos muestran diferentes escenarios: algunos lo llevan hacia Centroamérica, mientras que otros indican un posible giro hacia el norte. Una vez que el sistema tenga un centro de circulación definido, los modelos empezarán a coincidir más sobre su posible trayectoria.

Aún hay tiempo para vigilarlo de cerca. Y aunque no representa una amenaza para Estados Unidos por ahora, las islas del Caribe deben mantenerse atentas.

TROPICAL UPDATE:

* The tropical wave we've been watching in the Atlantic now has a 20% chance for development.

* It's moving west making its way into the Caribbean.

* What's going to happen once in the Caribbean? Too soon to tell.

* Current models not showing consistencies. It's likely that this far out they will go back and forth.

* Nothing to worry about for now. Still long time to continue watching.