Nevarez Group

EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH BRIEF: JANUARY 2023
Persistently Low Unemployment Brings Implications for Fed and CRE

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Job growth tapers slightly in December. Across the country, a net 223,000 jobs were created in December, pushing the unemployment rate back down to 3.5 percent. While still above the 2000-2019 average, monthly hiring has been trending down since July of this year. Staff additions last month were most prevalent in the leisure and hospitality sector, as well as in health care and construction. Payroll changes in other industries were modest. While joblessness remains low, the concentration of employment growth in only select fields that are either still in recovery or face acute labor shortages may foreshadow a sharper slowdown in job creation to come. This has important implications for Federal Reserve monetary policy, and by extension, the performance of financial markets and commercial properties.