Elena Lambrakis Realtor

A lot changed over the first half of 2026, including housing market forecasts.

Mortgage rates are expected to stay elevated. 👎

Existing and new home sales (nationally) were revised down 👎

However, home prices growth forecast was revised upwards from 2.1% to 2.6% nationally 👍

Of course conditions vary locally, and I did not see reliable forecasts specifically for NYC. If I had to guess, I would predict flat to slightly higher sales, and positive price growth, since we are already seeing 4%+ yoy increase in median list prices.

Want to talk about your plans and options? Let’s connect!

Asked AI to create a caricature of me based on what it knows about me and my work. I think it approves 🤣

One thing it got wrong - I’m not ‘Brooklyn born’. I’m Brooklyn by choice.

More listings are coming on the market this spring… right? So why doesn’t it feel easier for buyers??

A new NAR/Realtor report explains the disconnect: it’s not just about how many homes are listed. It’s about whether those homes match what buyers can actually afford.

Nationally, the market is at about 75% “alignment,” meaning buyers on average can afford roughly three quarters of the options they would have in a balanced market.

But NY–Newark–Jersey City metro area is much tighter: only 55.1% alignment, placing it in the “severe shortage” category.

In simple terms: we do see more inventory, but much of it is still priced above where many local buyers are able to buy, and NYC remains one of the more challenging affordability markets in the country.

For buyers, this means preparation: budget clarity, flexibility and understanding where the good opportunities are. Let’s find one for you!

Which way do we go from here?

According to Realtor’s Spring 2026 Report, the US housing market is showing signs of life. Nationally, new listings are up 1.1% YTD, and contract signings are up 2.9% compared with last year. Contract signings are at their highest spring level since 2022, which may be an early sign that buyer demand is starting to come back, even with mortgage rates holding steady around 6.5%.

But New York is not following the national trend!

New York had a strong April for new listings, up 11.4% YOY, but year-to-date listings are only up 0.6% (remember, winter was cold and slow). More importantly, contract signings are down 23.1% YTD compared with 2025.

What does that mean?

Buyers are still cautious. Affordability, mortgage rates and overall uncertainty are affecting decisions. Sellers cannot assume that simply listing a property will bring strong demand. However, the dynamic varies greatly between types of property and location in NYC boroughs.

The biggest takeaway is pricing matters. The markets seeing the most activity are often the ones where sellers are pricing realistically from the beginning, instead of listing high and cutting later.

For buyers, this creates opportunities, especially where listings sit, prices adjust, and sellers become more flexible.

For deep dive - link to the full report in comment, and follow for more NY market updates.

One-of-a-kind Manhattan listing, claiming the title of the city’s largest 2 bedroom! Personally, I think this must be the most fascinating listing in NYC right now.

345 W 13th St #Loft2, New York, NY 10014 | MLS #S1828700 | Zillow This 6600 square feet Condo home has 2 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms. It is located at 345 W 13th St , New York, NY.

People think real estate negotiations are only about price. And sometimes they are.

And sometimes… they’re about a fridge with sentimental value and a fancy toilet seat replacement.

Part of the job is helping everyone navigate the big AND the small details, to get to the closing table smoothly 😁

In New York, the average mortgage rate was 6.45% this week for a 30-year fixed loan and the reason is bigger than just “what the Fed might do.”

Inflation came in hotter than many buyers would like to see. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in April and was 3.8% higher than a year ago, up from 3.3% the prior month. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 2.8% year-over-year.

Energy costs were a big part of the story. Rising oil prices added pressure, and airline fares were reported to be 21% higher than a year ago. Wholesale inflation was also hotter, with the Producer Price Index rising 1.4% in April and 6.0% year-over-year.

Why does this matter for real estate?

Because mortgage rates are closely tied to inflation expectations. When inflation looks sticky, investors become more conservative, pushing borrowing costs higher across the market. It also increases concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer in an effort to curb inflation.

At the same time, buyer activity has not disappeared. Despite NAR reporting that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was around 6.36% nationally, mortgage applications were still trending higher, rising 1.9% from the previous week.

In other news, New York lawmakers are reportedly considering a new 1% tax on NYC residential cash purchases of $1 million or more.

This is interesting because NY buyers who currently finance pay mortgage recording tax, which ranges from about 1.8% to 1.925% depending on the loan amount, while cash buyers avoid that particular cost. The proposed cash-purchase tax appears to be designed as a way to create a similar tax burden for higher-priced all-cash transactions.

If the proposal moves forward, NYC buyers will have a new layer of transaction costs, as all buyers at $1 million and above are already subject to the mansion tax. The mansion tax starts at 1% for purchases of $1 million or more and increases at higher price points.

So the larger question is: at what point do added transaction costs start affecting buyer behavior?

In a market where rates are already high, affordability is tight, and buyers are carefully calculating their payments, even small percentage changes can matter.

If you are trying to understand how today’s rates, taxes, and market conditions affect your buying or selling plans in Brooklyn or Staten Island, reach out - I’m happy to talk it through.

The latest snapshot from the outer boroughs is ready!
Inventory is rising in both and homes are taking a bit longer to sell, but the gap between the two markets is still very noticeable - Staten Island is holding steady as Seller’s market, and Brooklyn remains in Buyer’s market territory.

In other news, mortgage rates continue to hover in mid 6% range, 30 yr fixed average reached 6.4%, prompting some would-be buyers to hold off. Higher-income households (and cash buyers, of course) are less rate sensitive and more likely to take advantage of weaker competition this spring. The rates still remain below year-ago levels.

If these numbers have you thinking about your own real estate plans, feel free to reach out. And follow along for monthly market updates like this!

Making offers is one of the most exciting and important parts of the buying process.

I posted a new blog, breaking down:

what goes into an offer,
what if you like the home but not 100% sure,
how to think about price in different market conditions,
ways to make your offer stronger,
risks of lowball offers,
what happens “best and final” situations.

Link in comments. Enjoy!

Every month, I put together a real estate newsletter with a little bit of everything I think buyers, sellers, and local homeowners may find useful:
market updates focused on South Brooklyn and Staten Island,
a few real estate articles I personally find interesting,
buyer and seller tips,
a featured listing that caught my attention,
and upcoming events around Bay Ridge.

If you’d like to be added to the list, DM me your email.

And if you know someone thinking about buying or selling in Brooklyn or Staten Island, feel free to share this with them.