Nikki Rini MLO NMLS 1485304

Mortgage rate update 09/18 📉: Just like I said yesterday mortgage rates are going to be higher this morning after the Fed announced the first cut of the year

🛑THE FED DOESNT CONTROL MORTGAGE RATES !!!
Mortgage rates follow the mortgage backed security and bond market specifically the US 10yr treasury

🙈Last year the US 10 yr treasury hit its low 3.72 before the Fed cut was announced and was back up to 4.25 by November 1st . So mortgage rates spiked after the Fed cut rates last year

Which is why Trump calling for the Fed to drop rates by over 1% is the dumbest thing they could possibly do and would send inflation and prices through the roof . The president shouldn’t control monetary policy ask Turkey how that has gone for them

July CPI Report: What You Need to Know 📊

Headline:
• Inflation (YoY): 2.7%, holding steady from June.  
• Core CPI (excludes food & energy): 3.1%, up from 2.9% — still above the Fed’s 2% target. 

Noteworthy Details:
• Energy prices dropped (gasoline down ~2.2%), helping temper headline inflation. 
• Service costs—like airfare and medical care—are driving core inflation higher. 

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Why It Matters for Rates
• Rate Cut in September Looks Likely: Investors now see about a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut next month, according to futures data. 
• Stock Markets Rally: Wall Street responded positively, reflecting growing confidence in future rate easing. 
• Balanced Outlook: While the Fed notes core inflation is still elevated, stabilized headline CPI gives them room to consider easing—particularly as job data softens.  

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TL;DR for Home Buyers & Homeowners
• Steady inflation + manageable core prices = higher odds of a cut.
• Smart move: Discuss refinance or rate lock options soon before rates shift.

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Let me know if you’d like to dive deeper into how this impacts your financing strategy!

📉 Housing Market Update: Sellers Outnumber Buyers by Record Margin

The U.S. housing market is experiencing a significant shift:
• 🏠 Supply Surge: As of April 2025, there are approximately 1.9 million homes for sale, with only 1.5 million buyers actively searching. This 34% surplus of sellers over buyers is the largest gap recorded since 2013.
• 💰 Affordability Challenges: High mortgage rates, averaging 6.73%, coupled with elevated home prices, are deterring potential buyers. The median home sale price rose 1.6% year-over-year to $431,931 in April, leading to record-high monthly housing payments.
• 📉 Price Adjustments Expected: With sellers competing for a limited pool of buyers, Redfin forecasts a 1% decrease in home prices by the end of 2025.
• 📍 Regional Disparities:
• Buyer’s Markets: Cities like Miami, West Palm Beach, and Fort Lauderdale are seeing nearly three times more sellers than buyers, indicating strong buyer’s markets.
• Seller’s Markets: Conversely, areas like Newark, NJ, and Nassau County, NY, have more buyers than sellers, maintaining seller’s market conditions. 

🔑 Takeaway: The balance of power is shifting towards buyers, especially in regions with high inventory levels. Sellers may need to adjust expectations and consider price reductions or incentives to attract buyers in this evolving market.