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𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆 𝟭𝟲, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

Good news for the economy…

Not necessarily good news for rates.

Mortgage bonds slipped back near 𝟵𝟵.𝟴𝟰, while the 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝟰.𝟱𝟴% after another round of solid economic data reminded markets that the U.S. economy is still holding up.

That took some of the shine off yesterday’s bond rally.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆 𝗸𝗲𝗲𝗽𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲

Today’s reports pointed in the same direction:

• Retail Sales remained solid
• Weekly Jobless Claims stayed low
• Philly Fed showed continued business activity

Translation?

Consumers are still spending.

Layoffs remain limited.

And the economy is not showing signs of rolling over.

That’s positive for growth…

But it also gives the Fed less urgency to cut rates.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗶𝘀 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘃𝗲 $𝟴𝟬

WTI crude has now climbed above $𝟴𝟬 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹, up sharply from roughly $𝟲𝟲 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸.

That’s four straight days of gains.

And higher oil brings inflation concerns right back into the conversation.

Higher energy costs eventually work through transportation, shipping, production, and consumer prices.

Bonds do not like that setup.

𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗯𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are lower this morning as investors react to renewed AI concerns, stronger economic data, and rising oil prices.

Even strong markets need to pause.

𝗪𝗮𝗿𝘀𝗵 𝘄𝗿𝗮𝗽𝘀 𝘂𝗽 𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘆

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh completed two days of congressional testimony yesterday.

Markets are still digesting his message on inflation, future rate policy, and the Fed’s balance sheet.

Fed commentary continues today before the quiet period begins Friday night ahead of the July 28 meeting.

𝗧𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿

President Trump is scheduled to address the nation at 𝟵:𝟬𝟬 𝗣𝗠 𝗘𝗧.

Markets will be watching closely for any updates on U.S.-Iran tensions and the administration’s next steps.

One headline could move oil-and rates-quickly.

𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

Mortgage bonds remain just below 𝟭𝟬𝟬/𝗽𝗮𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲.

The 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝟰.𝟱𝟴%, with the critical ceiling still sitting at 𝟰.𝟲𝟬%.

That level remains the line in the sand.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

Closing within the next couple of weeks? Continue locking.

For longer timelines, floating most files still makes sense-but watch 4.60% carefully.

The market is trying to recover…

But strong data and higher oil are keeping pressure alive.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.

"𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝘀 𝗮 𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺."

I've heard that phrase for years.

The more I think about it, the less I agree.

Competition isn't a race to the bottom.

It's a race to create more value.

Amazon didn't become Amazon by charging the highest prices.

Costco didn't build a loyal following by telling customers price doesn't matter.

Southwest didn't revolutionize air travel by convincing people expensive tickets were somehow better.

The businesses that win over decades usually become more efficient, not more expensive.

Mortgage lending should be no different.

Consumers deserve competitive pricing and expert advice.

They deserve transparency and ex*****on.

They deserve speed and certainty.

Some people act like rate shopping is irrational.

I think it's perfectly rational.

A mortgage is often the largest financial commitment someone will ever make. Even a small difference in rate can mean tens of thousands of dollars over the life of a loan.

That doesn't mean rate is the only thing that matters.

A poorly structured loan at the lowest rate can still be the wrong loan.

But pretending price doesn't matter because we sell "value" isn't value either.

Real value is earning trust through knowledge, strategy, responsiveness, and ex*****on-while also respecting your client's wallet.

The best businesses don't ask consumers to choose between competitive pricing and exceptional service.

They build a model that delivers both.

That's not a race to the bottom.

That's what competition is supposed to look like.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆 𝟵, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

The market is steady today…

But still sitting in a wide range.

Mortgage bonds are holding near 𝟭𝟬𝟬.𝟬𝟲, while the 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟰.𝟱𝟲%, just below the key 𝟰.𝟲𝟬% 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹.

That level matters.

If yields break above it, rates could feel more pressure.

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗶𝘀 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗺𝗲𝗿… 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗻𝗼𝘄

After yesterday’s move higher, WTI crude pulled back slightly near $𝟳𝟮.𝟵𝟯

Markets are still watching U.S.–Iran tensions closely because any escalation could push oil higher again.

And as we know:

Higher oil = higher inflation pressure
Higher inflation pressure = tougher bond market

𝗝𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗰𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗺𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘆 𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆

Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 𝟮𝟭𝟱𝗞, showing the labor market remains stable.

There’s plenty of talk about AI replacing jobs, but we are not seeing that show up in the labor data yet.

In fact, the latest JOLTS report showed 𝟳.𝟲𝗠 𝗷𝗼𝗯 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀, up from the prior report.

History gives us perspective.

People feared the internet would destroy jobs too.

Instead, it created industries and opportunities no one imagined at the time.

AI may do the same.

𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗰𝗮𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀

Yesterday’s Fed Minutes showed policymakers remain concerned about inflation.

Translation?

Rates may stay higher for longer unless inflation continues cooling.

Solid growth and a stable labor market give the Fed room to stay patient.

𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗮𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆

The Treasury will auction $𝟮𝟮𝗕 𝗶𝗻 𝟯𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 after strong demand for yesterday’s 10-Year auction.

Strong demand could help stabilize yields.

Weak demand could pressure rates.

𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

Mortgage bonds are sitting right on 𝟭𝟬𝟬/𝗽𝗮𝗿 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁.

The 𝟭𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝟰.𝟱𝟳%, with key resistance at 𝟰.𝟲𝟬%.

We are still at an important line in the sand.

𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆

Continue locking loans closing soon.

For longer timelines, floating may still make sense, but watch these levels closely.

This market is stable…

But not settled.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁.