NSSG

Today, Alessandro Martello contributed to Milano Finanza's Business Intelligence section, focusing on:

🔹 Somalia / Maritime Security: Piracy resurges in the Gulf of Aden as naval focus shifts to the Strait of Hormuz, exposing vulnerabilities in global anti-piracy architecture.
🔹 Nigeria–China / Energy & Refining: A new refinery partnership and Dangote's output signal a structural shift in global refining toward West Africa.
🔹 Canada–Mexico / Trade & Economy: Record bilateral trade missions reshape North American dynamics ahead of USMCA review.

A valuable discussion on how maritime security, energy transformation, and evolving trade relationships continue to shape the global strategic environment, creating both challenges and opportunities for governments, businesses, and investors.

Thank you to Milano Finanza for hosting this important conversation.
https://video.milanofinanza.it/video/market-intelligence-tensioni-geopolitiche-e-impatti-sulle-strategie-aziendali-attuali-xae4rme

NEW Intelligence Brief: "One Step Forward, One Strike Back: The State of US-Iran Negotiations"

The article examines the paradox shaping the current US-Iran relationship: diplomatic progress occurring alongside the most significant military exchanges seen since the ceasefire. It also explores the growing strategic importance of Iraq, domestic pressures across the Gulf, and the increasing commercial implications surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and regional maritime security.
This publication was produced with the valuable support of our Intelligence Team, whose expertise and continuous monitoring of regional developments help deliver timely, actionable insights for decision-makers and organizations operating in complex environments.

Read the full analysis by Nima Korami on our website: https://hubs.li/Q04ksj-W0

On 31 May, Colombia's first-round presidential vote sent two candidates with incompatible economic agendas to a 21 June runoff. Security hardliner Abelardo de la Espriella took 43.74 percent against leftist senator Ivan Cepeda at 40.90 percent, on turnout near 58 percent. De la Espriella has signalled deregulation, tighter fiscal policy, and closer alignment with Washington. Cepeda would extend the outgoing administration's energy-transition agenda, including restrictions on new oil and gas exploration.

Outgoing President Gustavo Petro, barred from re-election, has rejected the preliminary count and alleged software irregularities, while observers have not found evidence of systemic manipulation. The winner takes office on 7 August, leaving a narrow window before a potentially sharp divergence in Colombia's investment and security posture.

Advisory: Organisations with energy, mining, or infrastructure exposure in Colombia should model both runoff outcomes now and stress-test their exposure to divergent hydrocarbon-licensing and US counternarcotics paths before the 7 August transition. They should also track whether the dispute over the preliminary count hardens into a formal challenge, as a contested handover would extend uncertainty past the vote.

Connect with NSSG at [email protected] to learn how we can assist.