Freedom Advisory

Markets are sending mixed signals right now. Short-term weakness across equities contrasts with still-solid 3–5 year returns, especially in tech and large caps. Volatility picking up again is a reminder: discipline and asset allocation matter more than timing.

This chart illustrates how the S&P 500 has historically performed in the year following 2-day oil price surges of 20% or more, dating back to 1986.

There have been 8 unique instances of oil surging 20% or more over a 2-day period (since 1986). In 7 of 8 cases, the S&P 500 was higher one year later. The S&P 500 has generated a -1.00% return since March 6, 2026.

While past performance is not indicative of future results, the chart shows that the S&P 500 has historically shown resilience in the year following 2-day oil surges of more than 20%.

The B500 didn’t simply land at 18%. It earned it, propelled by resilient fundamentals.