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25/01/2024
https://www.dawn.com/news/1808146/how-the-next-govt-can-cope-with-changing-world-order
How the next govt can cope with changing world order Incoming administration’s foreign policy challenges will be underscored by need for economic stabilisation.
Pakistan: Between Geoeconomic or Geopolitics?
Pakistan’s tensions with India, Afghanistan, and now Iran show that we will continue to be a geopolitical player rather than a geo-economic actor in global and regional politics, contrary to what was envisaged in the much-hyped NSP 2022-2026.
Why do I believe so? Geo-economics has some geographic confinements – shared regional economic vision, regional connectivity, infrastructural integrational, and production base. Most importantly, a realization of co-existence well beyond self-serving ultra-nationalistic self-interests that prioritizes a citizen-specific approach to growth over state-centric security. This eventuality necessitates a regional consensus spanning over a generation or a tragedy can do the job, the way WWII did in the case of the EU.
Since there is no regional consensus at the moment and does not seem to appear soon, industrialization takes years and its dividends take even more time to reach the populace, and Pakistan’s imploding crises cannot wait that long. The pursuit of geoeconomic vision becomes even more difficult to achieve when a tempting Cold War is on in the system and regional countries find their interests diverged and aligned with different great powers (look at Iran, Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, Saudia Arabia, Russia, China, and the USA).
In geopolitics, one uses geographic credentials and aligns them with great powers’ ambitions to stay relevant in the system and receive benefits from the great power competition. Conclusively, I think, conditions are ripe for geopolitics than geoeconomics. For the latter, we do not have the requisites conditions and consensus at hand; but for the former, existing systemic pressures and our experience make a perfect mix.
Caution: this time we have to bargain better so it does not go as a ‘geostrategic curse’ like in the past. And we can pursue the geoeconomics dream in the future.
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