Inanam V

25/11/2025

Key Contenders & Predictions

Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS)

According to a Vodus poll, GRS leads with 25% voter support.
NST Online

Political analysts (e.g. RSIS) believe GRS has a “slight advantage” due to incumbency and its local coalition strength.

However — because of the very crowded and fragmented field (multi-cornered fights in many seats) — some analysts expect no party to secure a full majority on its own.
Sinar Daily
+2
Malay Mail
+2

If GRS doesn’t win alone, coalition-building will be critical.
Sinar Daily

Parti Warisan

Warisan is contesting all 73 seats, showing it is going in strong.
The Star
+1

Its leader, Mohd Shafie Apdal, is confident of winning, arguing that Warisan’s record and “Sabahan-local” identity resonate with voters.
Jesselton Times

Some analysts see Warisan as one of the likely coalition-formers if no one gets a majority.
Sinar Daily

Barisan Nasional (BN)

BN is also contesting many seats.
The Star

According to a source in Daily Express, BN aims to win 27 out of 38 seats it is contesting, which could give it leverage in forming government or influencing post-election coalitions.
Daily Express

Umno (a major BN component) is being cautious: it says it will only field candidates in “winnable” seats.
NST Online

There is talk (from Umno’s leadership) that a BN-PH alliance in Sabah could be powerful.
Malay Mail

Overall Prediction & Likely Scenario

Most likely outcome: A coalition government rather than a clean landslide by one party. Several analysts think it's very hard for a single party to hit the 37-seat majority threshold.
Sinar Daily
+1

Front-runner: GRS — due to its lead in polls, incumbency, and strong ground presence. But its margin is not big enough to guarantee a solo win given the fragmented race.

Key challengers: Warisan and BN are both serious players and could be kingmakers or even lead a coalition if the numbers work out.

Risks & Wildcards

Undecided voters: The Vodus poll showed 32% of Sabah voters are still undecided, which introduces a major swing factor.
NST Online

Multi-cornered fights: With many seats expected to have 5 or more candidates, vote splitting is very likely.
Malay Mail

Local parties: Parties like STAR–SAPP (which left GRS) and Parti Impian Sabah (P*S) might play spoiler roles in certain constituencies.
Malay Mail
+1

My Prediction

GRS is the most likely to be the largest bloc, but not guaranteed to win a majority on its own. The election is expected to result in a coalition government, probably involving GRS plus one or more smaller parties (or even a BN-PH component), depending on how the post-election negotiations go.