The Exchange

America and Israel look poised to directly and significantly attack Iran in the coming hours or days. Despite most of us thinking it would be the Republican Neocons of Iraq War shame who eventually would get more of the war and disaster they crave as the only/best solution, it is Team Biden that is going to do this - believing that now is a "Liquid moment" as Jared Kushner put it to Escalate to Victory - in the process handing the Trump campaign a fantastic own-goal or October Surprise...on top of moving forward with a massive widening of conflict, violence and instability that will rock the world.

It is, in short, a war of choice by Team Biden well beyond Bush's Iraq war disaster that will have enormous negative repercussions for the people of the region first, and assuredly Israel, the US and Europe as well.

My piece weeks ago, below, about the necessity of US involvement in this attack given Israel's manifest weaknesses and limitations in the field. They are great at stand-off destruction and mastery of cutting-edge tech but awful on the battlefield in actual combat with a peer enemy that doesn't even have air cover (witness Hezbollah's heavy damage in just the last 24 hours). They also can't escalate to an open war with the State of Iran without US boots and planes.

Why Israel still hasn't retaliated with a strike against Iran The stakes are now higher in the Middle East as Israel and the US deliberate their response to Iran's missile strikes

A great article (paywalled tho) on our lawsuit against the Biden Admin: "How far does Humanitarian Law Project reach in limiting speech has been an open question,” Andresen said, “Our case would at least, if successful, claw back some of that space.”

Devex Newswire: What’s the line between speaking to terrorists and supporting them? This question has pitted many civil society organizations against the U.S. government and a new case that could broaden the counterterrorism legal framework is heating up the debate. Plus, what African countries want from COP 29.

"As it currently stands, Israel very likely needs a substantial and verifiable withdrawal by Hezbollah from the border in order to avert internal pressure towards a far wider assault," Nicholas Noe, editor of the book Voice of Hezbollah: The Statements of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, told Democracy in Exile. "But it is also very unlikely that any combination of domestic concessions which the U.S. might want to, or is able to, bestow on Hezbollah"—a friendly Lebanese president, a demarcation of the border in Lebanon's favor, reconstruction aid—"can bring this about, given the heavy military, historical, political and ideological barriers."

Biden's special envoy, Hochstein, seems to think that his working relationship with Lebanese parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri is good enough for him to be able to "lubricate some kind of a pullback deal by Hezbollah after a cease-fire," Noe said. But, he added, "the reality is that Berri simply doesn't have the pull on this core interest issue with Hezbollah."

Avoiding an "all-out war" in Lebanon could ultimately depend on whether "Israeli leaders inwardly recognize the changed balance of power and thus decrease their direct demands vis-à-vis Hezbollah, accepting smaller but nevertheless important and 'doable' measures which can over time help to reduce Hezbollah's ability and desire to project its military power," Noe said.

These measures, Noe suggested, could possibly include a stronger presence of the Lebanese Army at the border with Israel, more room for U.N. forces to maneuver in southern Lebanon, and demarcating non-controversial parts of the Lebanese-Israel border. As he noted, however, the prospect of the Israeli government agreeing to such measures is low. He doubted that Israeli leaders "have the desire or ability to follow such a path, while it seems unlikely that the Biden administration would push the Israelis in this direction, much less apply the known pressures towards a cease-fire."

For now, the Biden administration is pursuing a strategy aimed at protecting northern Israel's security by pushing for some form of a buffer zone between Lebanon and Israel, in southern Lebanon, rather than genuine peace. Ghaddar says that this path of negotiation risks failing, given Hezbollah's strength and position in Lebanon. "From past experience with the Israelis, Hezbollah is very unlikely to agree to retracting from the southern border," which she noted is already disputed, "only to help create a security boundary for the Israelis." She referred to a quote from Berri back in February: "'It's easier to relocate the Litani River further south than to displace Hezbollah northward.'"

Can Biden Avert ‘All-Out War’ Between Israel and Hezbollah? - DAWN The war of attrition between Hezbollah and Israel along the Israel-Lebanon border risks escalating into a full-on conflict.

Our discussion tonight on Inside Story:

Are Israel and Hezbollah on the verge of a full-blown war? | Inside Story Tensions between the Israeli military and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah are at an all-time high.They've been engaged in low-level hostilities for more than ...