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Opening Bell – Morning Commentary
U.S.–Iran Ceasefire on the Brink; Markets Shift Focus to High-Stakes U.S.–China Summit

U.S. equities continued their record-setting rally overnight, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at fresh all-time highs of 7,412 and 26,274 respectively. Strength in technology and semiconductor stocks outweighed investor concerns surrounding the collapse of U.S.–Iran ceasefire negotiations.

Market sentiment remains supported by the view that the AI-led investment cycle is still in its early innings, with major chipmakers such as Micron touching new record highs.

Crude oil prices surged after President Trump dismissed Tehran’s counterproposal as “totally unacceptable,” raising fears of renewed geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. Brent crude climbed sharply to $105 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield advanced to 4.41% as investors repriced inflation expectations ahead of Tuesday’s April CPI data. Economists expect inflation to print at 3.7% year-on-year.

In currency markets, the euro remained largely unchanged near the $1.18 mark, repeatedly failing to break above key resistance as traders await fresh inflation cues before taking directional positions.

Investor attention is now turning toward the upcoming Trump–Xi summit, expected to cover a wide-ranging agenda including Iran, nuclear policy, trade relations, and artificial intelligence. The meeting is being viewed as one of the most consequential U.S.–China engagements in recent years and could significantly influence global markets, energy trends, and the evolving AI race.

Adding to the significance of the summit, executives from major U.S. corporations including Apple, Boeing, Citi, Tesla, and Meta are accompanying President Trump to China. Their participation underscores the importance of trade normalization and market access in the broader diplomatic agenda.

Back home, the Indian rupee weakened sharply, depreciating by 83 paise to close at a record low amid rising geopolitical tensions and a spike in crude oil prices. The strengthening U.S. dollar and concerns over India’s import bill further pressured the domestic currency.

Domestic sentiment also turned cautious following Prime Minister Modi’s “Nation First” austerity appeal, which urged citizens to reduce fuel consumption and defer non-essential foreign travel in order to conserve foreign exchange reserves.

Indian equities remained under pressure for the third straight session. The Nifty declined 360 points to close at 23,815, dragged lower by elevated crude prices and rupee weakness.

Technically, Nifty is expected to test the crucial 23,800 support level at the open. A decisive breach could accelerate downside momentum toward the 23,550–23,500 zone. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen in the 24,000–24,125 range.

Outlook for Today

Indian markets are likely to open lower, tracking weak global cues, rising crude prices, and continued geopolitical uncertainty.😳😳

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