Earthquake Prediction Research Project

EXECUTIVE EARTHQUAKE SITUATION REPORT & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Event: Morigaon–Dhing, Assam
Date/Time: 5 January 2026 | 04:17 IST
Magnitude: M5.2–5.4 (agency-dependent)
Depth: 10–35 km
Status: Confirmed | Reviewed

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1. EVENT SNAPSHOT (TOP-LINE)

At 04:17 AM IST on 5 January 2026, a moderate but widely felt earthquake impacted Central Assam, with the epicentral zone between Morigaon and Dhing. Despite the moderate magnitude, shallow depth and regional geology amplified felt shaking, triggering widespread public response across Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, North Bengal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and parts of China.

Bottom line: High perceptibility, low structural damage, zero confirmed fatalities.

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2. SEISMIC PARAMETERS – CONSOLIDATED VIEW

Magnitude dispersion: 5.1–5.4 (USGS, EMSC, GFZ, IRIS, RaspberryShake)

Epicenter: ~26.37°N, 92.39°E

Focal depth uncertainty: 10 km (preferred shallow model) to 35 km

Energy release: ~4 × 10¹² joules (~951 tons TNT equivalent)

Rupture scale: ~7 km fault length (first-order estimate)

This variance is normal in near-real-time seismic solutions and converges within acceptable uncertainty bounds.

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3. INTENSITY & GROUND SHAKING (MMI)

Maximum reported intensity:

MMI VI–VII (Strong to Very Strong) within ~10 km of epicenter

Dominant regional intensity:

MMI IV–V (Light to Moderate) across Guwahati, Nagaon, Tezpur, Shillong

Duration:

10–60 seconds reported, including rolling and lateral motion

Key insight: Shallow-source mechanics + sedimentary basin effects in the Brahmaputra valley significantly increased felt duration and perceptibility.

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4. HUMAN EXPOSURE & PUBLIC RESPONSE

Estimated population exposed: ~47.8 million

Felt reports: 330+ verified user reports

Peak reporting clusters: Guwahati, Dispur, Nagaon, Morigaon

Public feedback confirms:

Waking from sleep

Swinging beds

Rattling furniture

Audible subsurface rumbling
No large-scale panic or infrastructure failure observed.

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5. DAMAGE & RISK ASSESSMENT

USGS Alert Level: 🟢 GREEN

Expected fatalities:

65% probability of zero

100

Economic loss projection:

99.9% probability below USD 1 million

Structural context:
The region contains a mix of non-engineered masonry, adobe, and RCC structures. While damage remained minimal, vulnerability remains high for stronger future events.

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6. REGIONAL TECTONIC CONTEXT

This earthquake aligns with the Eastern Himalayan–Indo-Burma plate interaction zone, one of the most seismically complex regions in the world.

Historical benchmarks:

1943 Assam earthquake: M7.1

2021 Assam earthquake: M6.0

2025 Darrang earthquake: M5.8

Conclusion: The 2026 Morigaon event is not anomalous, but part of an active, stress-accumulating tectonic regime.

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7. AFTERSHOCK OUTLOOK

No confirmed aftershocks at reporting time

Statistically, M5+ events can generate smaller aftershocks over days to weeks

Public and local authorities should remain observant but calm

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8. STRATEGIC TAKEAWAYS

This was a high-awareness, low-damage seismic event

Demonstrates critical need for regional seismic transparency

Reinforces urgency for:

Dense sensor networks

Real-time early-warning pilots

Public risk communication

Building-code enforcement

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9. FINAL ASSESSMENT

The Morigaon–Dhing M5.2 earthquake serves as a clear operational reminder:
Northeast India is not earthquake-prone by chance—it is earthquake-prone by design of nature.

Preparedness, data-driven policy, and early-warning infrastructure are no longer optional—they are strategic necessities.

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Stay alert. Stay informed. Science saves lives.
— Earthquake Monitoring & Analysis Desk

Commencing 2026 with a heightened emphasis on earthquake awareness, intelligent urban safety, and our cutting-edge Planetary AI software, which facilitates enhanced understanding and preparedness. Anticipating a year of more resilient communities and impactful innovation. Looking forward to a year of safer communities and meaningful innovation.

⚠️ BREAKING: Major Earthquake in Afghanistan** ⚠️

A **powerful earthquake** struck **Eastern Afghanistan** late on **31st August 2025**.

📍 **Epicenter:** Jalalabad, Nangarhar Province
📊 **Magnitude:** 6.0 (USGS) / 6.3 (NCS India)
📉 **Depth:** USGS: 8 km (shallow, stronger shaking) | NCS: 160 km
🕒 **Time:** 31 August 2025, 11:47 PM local (19:17 UTC)

🌍 Affected Areas:

*Very Strong Shaking (MMI VII):* Jalalabad, Mehtarlam, Asadabad
*Strong Shaking (MMI VI):* Eastern Afghanistan & northwestern Pakistan (incl. Peshawar)
*Moderate Shaking (MMI V):* Kabul, Islamabad region
*Light Shaking:* Felt across India (Delhi, Punjab, Himachal), Nepal

📰 Casualties:

👉According to local media and rescue teams, *around 600 people have been killed* so far.
👉 Hundreds injured, many houses destroyed.
👉 Rescue operations are ongoing, and the death toll is expected to rise.

🗺 Maps:

📌 *USGS ShakeMap*: Intense shaking near Jalalabad.
📌 *NCS India Map*: Tremors felt across Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and Nepal.

🙏Our deepest condolences to the victims. International assistance is urgently needed.

*Felt earthquake: 5.5 quake 14 km S of Kodāri̇̄, Nepal , Time 02:16 IST*