Alfred Lado

President Kiir"s delegates found themselves between the cliff and whirlpool because of too much pressure from People's Coalition for Civil Actions - South Sudan (PCCA- SS), despite hardly squeezing the armed opposition groups participating in the Tumaini Initiative in Nairobi to the wall in a diplomatic manner to say the least. That isn't a surprise at all to the general public in South Sudan due to the fact that some of the so called armed opposition groups have all along been funded by J1 (Presidency) such as SSUF of Gen. Paul Malong and NAS - RCC under Mr. Mario Loku & Mr Stephen Lukaja, among others. For that reason, it's worth mentioning that the leadership of RCC was dismissed by NAS mainstream under Gen. Thomas Cirillo Swaka long time ago on January 25th, 2024, for two major reasons, namely,

a) establishing communication with some individuals at J1 without authorisation from NAS leadership,

b) disappearance from the line of duty for three good years but only to be found in refugee camp in Uganda. In short, this group of RCC was manufactured by some individuals at J1 and their cohorts simply to appear in the name of NAS in that peace negotiation.

It's unfortunate that most if not all of the armed groups participating in Tumaini Initiative turned out to be afraid or incapacitated for some reasons to brief or make strong public statements on behalf of the downtrodden people of South Sudan to know whether things are progressing well or they are under a clandestine confinement like what happened in Khartoum in 2018; it's yet to be determined, much as Gen. Stephen Buay, one time, raised a similar alarm, but he seems to have been silenced.

In addition to the above, some voices are coming out that in reality, they (armed oppositions) are observably under strict situation by the security to remain in Kenya under the pretext of house keeping rules even though government and other delegates can easily travel and come back to the table as they wish. It's an indication of something fishy with the opposition participants. In light of that, none of them can ever leave Kenya soon unless they strike a much needed deal by Juba at the very least in order to extend President Kiir's stay in power now that the supposedly said Dec 2024 general elections aren't anymore feasible. Knowingly that President Kiir's tenure of office will expire in December this year, according to R-ARCSS and its extended road map. Therefore, Juba regime is desperate to bash any kind of a deal to give Kiir another legitimacy by all means. Otherwise, another war is eminent in order to buy more time. It's high time for the opposition participating in the Tumaini Initiative not only to think of positions in Juba but the interest of the general public. The public is yet to hear clarification on that matter, much as there's already a formed public opinion about oppositions' participation in that initiative unless they begin to do things differently.

After three weeks or so, the PCCA emerged now as the body capable of telling the truth in the face of Kiir's delegates and mediators as some of their representatives confidently said it in various South Sudanese WhatsApp groups. So far, they have demanded not only for Kiir and Machar to step down now but also to freeze out the national security service unit and merging of tiger division to the mother unit sspdf and so on. Those demands vividly reflect some real calls of the people of South Sudan, albeit there are still more.

In conclusion, it's advisable to listen to the launching speeches of this initiative, especially that of the Chief Negotiator Lt. Gen. Lazaro Sumbeiywo, President Ruto and President Kiir while also taking in consideration the declaration of a commitment signed by the parties on May 16th, 2024 which will remain as guiding principles to the whole process from the beginning to the end.

It's apparent that some armed groups will likely be compelled in one way or the other to sign any kind of a document that can be produced even though they have been given that 72 page- document to review. There's already a discrepancy, though it went unnoticed. Yesterday, one of the opposition figures said that they were presented a 72 page-document, while the government spokesperson stated that they have been given a 75 page-document. This alone is a problem because the difference of three pages sounds volumes, leave alone the context therein.