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05/17/2025

🚨 Opinion: What’s Up with Canadian Home Prices (2005–2025)

The Big Picture:
In my view, Canada’s housing market over the past 20 years looks anything but normal. Based on trends, it seems prices today are way above what long-term fundamentals would suggest.

Three Eras of Housing:

2005–2015: The Calm Before the Storm
• Home prices rose at a steady, sensible pace
• Growth aligned with the broader economy

2015–2022: The Boom (or Bubble?)
• Prices skyrocketed from ~$400K to over $850K
• This didn’t seem tied to stronger incomes or massive population growth
• It looked more like a rush driven by low interest rates, speculation, and FOMO

2022–2025: The Bumpy Ride Down
• Prices dipped after peaking but remain around $700K
• Still looks inflated — potentially 40% higher than long-term value, based on economic trends

My Take:
• If prices realign with fundamentals, we could see values like $500K again for an average home
• In my opinion, the recent surge was more about easy money and hype than true demand
• This feels more like a bubble aftermath than a stable market

Not Advice — Just Perspective:
I’m not saying what will or should happen — just sharing how it looks from where I stand. Markets don’t always behave rationally, but they often eventually return to earth.

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