Zanders & Associates Mortgage Brokers Inc.

Are Rates going up or down or not at all?
Here is the market commentary from First National Financial LP

"Residential Market Commentary - Good employment report
Jul 14, 2025

Like most economic news the latest jobs report from Statistics Canada is something of a double-edged sword.

The report shows the Canadian economy added, an unexpected, 83,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate dropped a notch to 6.9% from 7.0% in May. Most of the new positions were part-time in the private sector. The numbers have been greeted as good news especially in light of the trade and tariff uncertainty emanating from the United States.

However, for those waiting for further interest rate relief the news may be disappointing. The report is buttressing expectations that the Bank of Canada will remain “on hold” when it announces its next interest rate decision at the end of this month. Expectations of a rate cut on July 30 fell to 19% following the release of the jobs data. That is down from 26% following the May report.

A significant factor that the BoC will be mindful of is the notoriously volatile nature of Canada’s employment reports. Any single, monthly reading cannot be taken as a trend. The Bank will be looking at the longer-term analysis. It shows there were still 1.6 million people unemployed last month and it is taking those people longer to find work. One in five job hunters spent at least 27 weeks seeking employment – a four percentage-point increase over last year.

The underlying weakness in the job market and this week’s inflation report will be two of the key factors in the Bank’s next rate decision."

Self explanatory post today. 😉
Happy Friday and Merry Christmas to you all! 🥰

It's great news for all Variable Rate Mortgages!

"Bank of Canada brings its benchmark interest rate down 50 basis points to 3.25%
Dec 11, 2024
First National Financial LP

The Bank of Canada wrapped up 2024 with another reduction in its policy interest rate. This latest reduction – 50 basis points – follows four previous downward moves that started in June.

Below, we summarize the rationale for this decision, along with the Bank’s forward-looking comments.
Canadian economic performance and housing market comments

The Canadian economy grew by 1% in the third quarter, somewhat below the Bank’s October projection, and the fourth quarter also looks weaker than projected
Third-quarter GDP growth was weighed down by business investment, inventories and exports
In contrast, consumer spending and housing activity both picked up, suggesting lower interest rates are beginning to boost household spending
Historical revisions to the National Accounts have increased the level of GDP over the past three years, largely reflecting higher investment and consumption
The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November as employment continued to grow more slowly than the labour force
Wage growth showed some signs of easing, but remains elevated relative to productivity

Canadian inflation and outlook

Inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index has been about 2% since the summer, and is expected to average close to the 2% target over the next couple of years
Since October, the upward pressure on inflation from shelter and the downward pressure from goods prices have both moderated as expected
Looking ahead, the GST holiday will temporarily lower inflation but that will be unwound once the GST break ends
Measures of core inflation will be used to assess the CPI inflation trend

Global economic performance and the Canadian dollar

The global economy is evolving largely as expected in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report
The US economy continues to show broad-based strength, with robust consumption and a solid labour market
US inflation has been holding steady, with some price pressures persisting
In the euro area, recent indicators point to weaker growth
In China, recent policy actions combined with strong exports are supporting growth, but household spending remains subdued
Global financial conditions have eased and the Canadian dollar has depreciated in the face of broad-based strength in the US dollar

Summary comments

The Bank rationalized today’s decision by observing that “with inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 50 basis points” to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of its 1-3% target range.
Outlook

In today’s announcement, the Bank noted that “a number” of policy measures have been announced that will affect the outlook for near-term growth and inflation in Canada including reductions in targeted immigration levels. This suggests GDP growth in 2025 will be below the Bank’s October forecast.

In the Bank’s view, the effects on inflation will likely be more muted, given that lower immigration dampens both demand and supply. Other federal and provincial policies – including a temporary suspension of the GST on some consumer products, one-time payments to individuals, and changes to mortgage rules – will, in the Bank’s estimation, affect the dynamics of demand and inflation.

Going forward, the Bank said it “will look through effects that are temporary” and focus on underlying trends to guide its policy decisions.

In addition, the possibility that the incoming US administration will impose new tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States has increased uncertainty and clouded the economic outlook.

In concluding its announcement, the Bank observed that it has reduced its policy interest rate substantially since June. “Going forward, we will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time.”

It further noted that “our decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of the implications for the inflation outlook.”

It then repeated its often-hear phrase that it is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to its 2% target.
2025 brings more BoC news

The Bank is scheduled to make its first interest-rate decision of 2025 on January 29th. "

Yahoo!! The .25 rate reduction affects all variable rate mortgages!
Fixed rates are affected by the bond yields, which have been steadily dropping as well. This will help to make mortgage payments a bit more affordable.
Good News all around.
Call us to discuss your mortgage options. 604.831.3686

"Bank of Canada reduces its benchmark interest rate to 4.25%
Sep 4, 2024
First National Financial LP

Spurred on by underlying trends in the Canadian economy, the Bank of Canada today cut its overnight policy interest rate by 0.25% to 4.25%. This is the third reduction we’ve seen this year and while all cuts have been modest, they are moving Canada toward less restrictive monetary policy.

We summarize the Bank’s rationale for this decision by summarizing its observations below, including its forward-looking comments for signs of what may happen next.
Canadian inflation

As expected, inflation slowed further to 2.5% in July
The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation averaged around 2.5%
The “share of components” of the consumer price index are growing above 3%, roughly at their historical norm
High shelter price inflation is still the biggest contributor to total inflation but is starting to slow. Inflation also remains elevated in some other services

Canadian economic performance and outlook

In Canada, the economy grew by 2.1% in the second quarter – led by government spending and business investment – and this rate was “slightly stronger” than forecast in July, but preliminary indicators suggest that economic activity was soft through June and July
The Canadian labour market continues to slow, with little change in employment in recent months. Wage growth, however, remains elevated relative to productivity

Global economic performance and outlook

The global economy expanded by about 2.50% in the second quarter, consistent with projections in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report
In the United States, economic growth was stronger than expected, led by consumption, but the labour market has slowed
Euro-area growth has been boosted by tourism and other services, while manufacturing has been soft
Inflation in both regions continues to moderate. In China, weak domestic demand weighed on economic growth
Global financial conditions have eased further since July, with declines in bond yields. The Canadian dollar has appreciated modestly, largely reflecting a lower US dollar. Oil prices are lower than assumed in July

Summary comments and outlook

In making today’s decision, the Bank noted that excess supply in the economy continues to put downward pressure on inflation, while price increases in shelter and some other services are holding inflation up. As a result, Governing Council is “carefully assessing” these opposing forces on inflation. Monetary policy decisions will be guided, therefore, by incoming information and the Bank’s assessment of the implications for the inflation outlook.

And has it has been doing for some time, the Bank said it “remains resolute” in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.”
Next up

The Bank returns on October 23rd with its next monetary policy announcement. :