StonePoint Real Estate Team

Here's an interesting one for the feature read for the month! While we're all tired of the back and forth in the Iran conflict, what are the consequences? We've gathered the opinions from what analysts are saying:

After 4 months of on-and-off again hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, plus Israel's direct involvement in this and their own campaigns, there have been some pretty obvious global impacts. Analysts generally agree on numerous results - some that potentially improve regional and global situations, and others that are clearly detrimental:

Potential Positives:
1) Iran's Somewhat Degraded Military Capabilities: Joint military operations by the US and Israel have either damaged or weakened the Iranian navy and air force. According to US military sources over 90% of the Iranian navy has been eliminated. A large number of missile launchers, drone production sites, and air defences have either been damaged or destroyed although estimates are that Iran still holds a vast number of these items capable of short and medium range impacts.

2) Reduced Nuclear Capability: A key target has been Iran's nuclear material and nuclear refining capacity. This has been largely degraded or destroyed, however not eliminated as previously claimed by the US administration.

3) Iranian Proxies Weakened: The conflict has heavily struck Iranian backed militant networks such as Hezbollah and Hamas, weakening their operational capacities and potentially diminishing their regional threat.

3) New Regional Alliances: By expanding the conflict to include Gulf Arab states alongside Israel, the war has accelerated regional security cooperation between these states and the US. Further, even the Israelis provided direct military defensive assistance to the UAE with the deployment and operational assistance of Iron Dome anti-missile batteries directly on Emirati soil. That said, the reliance on the US for regional security partnerships is reportedly under internal scrutiny by some regional countries.

4) Unexpected Assistance: The Israelis provided direct military defensive assistance to the UAE with the deployment and operational assistance of Iron Dome anti-missile batteries directly on Emirati soil. Further, Ukraine signed 10 year defence and security co-operation agreements with Saudi Arabia and Qatar. As well, UAE and Ukraine have agreed to co-operate on defence. While this act has been recognized and appreciated, Israel is also seen as a major provocateur by many in the region due to a number of their aggressive military actions in Lebanon over the last number of months.

5) Oil and Gas Revenue Benefits: Places like the US, Canada, and unfortunately even Russia (although, Russia has seen significantly reduced exports due to numerous Ukrainian attacks on its oil infrastructure); have opportunities generate significant revenues higher commodity prices. For example, every $1 price increase in WTI, means approximately $2 million dollars a day toward Alberta’s economy.

Negatives:
1) Increased Inflation: Prices at the gas pump are up (and down and back up) by as high as 75% in Calgary from the lows seen before the war. Costs of many day to day items continue to go up, even items that may not be directly related to oil and gas. This is largely due to transportation costs. For example, it costs more to fuel farm equipment and transport goods to grocery stores, thus, resulting in higher food costs.

2) Higher Fertilizer Costs: Natural gas is the fundamental building block and primary energy source for nitrogen based fertilizers, it accounts for 70% - 90% of a production facility’s input costs. Therefore, higher natural gas prices lead to higher fertilizer production costs directly effecting farmer’s margins, and, hence, food costs will likely rise.

3) Clothing Cost Increases: Believe it or not, a well known clothing material is linked to oil and gas. Polyester is fundamentally a plastic, meaning it is a direct derivative of fossil fuels. The fibre is synthesized from petroleum crude oil and natural gas through a series of chemical processes.

4) Civilian Casualties: Attacks on urban and other centres have resulted in numerous civilian casualties in Lebanon, Israel, and Iran. Innocent people hurt or killed is a tragedy that can't be understated. Lebanon has suffered over 3,200 deaths and over 9,700 injured. While Iran has experienced about 3,500 deaths and 27,000 wounded. Israel has 26 civilians killed and over 7,700 injured.

5) Widening Conflict: The conflict has widened to include cyber warfare and drone strikes by Iran on neighbouring nations, plus of course attacks on regional US bases and their host nations in the Gulf - such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait.

6) Degraded, Not Defeated Iranian Military: Intelligence assessments indicate Iran retains approximately 70% of its pre-war missile stockpile and access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retains roughly 1,500 missiles and 200 operational launchers, and while subjected to severe blows to its production sites, Iran’s drone manufacturing has restarted at an accelerated pace as they retained the supply networks, technical expertise, and decentralized production facilities.

7) Growing Humanitarian Crisis: Poor countries with vulnerable populations are experiencing worsening conditions due to the cost or lack of fertilizers for crops, scarcity of cooking fuel and unaffordable fuel for vehicles. Some examples include Sudan, Somalia, Uganda, Ethiopia, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Cambodia.

8) Massive Cost of War: Figures reveal that the war has cost the US (at the very low end) at least $29 to $40 billion. That doesn't include equipment losses and increased maintenance. Factoring in soaring consumer energy costs, base repairs, long term veteran care, and equipment losses, the total economic and financial burden is estimated to be $630 billion to $1 trillion.

9) Iran's New Assertion of Control of the Strait: Iran has - and is trying to entrench governance of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which could have huge global impact. If successful, they would launch themselves financially beyond reach of any diplomatic or military control measures. This is a direct result of the conflict, as they realized the potential power they could have - and is a problem without a solution at this stage.

It causes you to wonder if things are further ahead or further behind, doesn't it?

Latest market snapshot...

Ahh, the sweet fragrance of the lilacs and the rich greenery of early summer!! See the latest statistics on the Calgary real estate market below!

City of Calgary figures reveal on a cumulative basis, from January and May 2026 versus January and May 2025, available detached housing inventory increased 4%, attached (row, semi-attached) increased 15%, and apartment increased by 4%. For the same period, the months of supply increased for the detached market by 8% to 2.4 months, for attached it was up by 37% to 3.3 months, and apartment up by 44% to 4.8 months. In the same timeframe, the number of sales decreased for detached homes by 4%, attached down by 16%, and apartment was down by 28%. In turn, average prices were down 3% for detached, down by 6% for attached, and down by 9% for the apartment segment.

What are Calgary Real Estate Board officials saying about the Calgary real estate market?

“The shift in supply is being felt in the market. More supply choice in the new and rental markets has created a more competitive environment for potential buyers. At the same time, concerns over rising cost of living and slower migration are also weighing on consumers,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®). “While this has caused the overall resale market to shift to a balanced state, the supply pressure is having a more prevalent impact for apartment-style units, where conditions are favouring the buyer. This is also impacting price movements, with apartment prices continuing to trend down and other property types reporting a seasonal lift over the winter months.”

The CREB summary explains, “In line with seasonal trends, inventory has risen from the start of the year, reaching 6,752 units. While these levels are consistent with last May, they remain 11 per cent higher than longer-term trends for the month, thanks to higher supply levels of apartment and row-style homes. Meanwhile, inventory levels for detached homes are down three per cent compared with both last year and long-term trends."

"At the same time, sales activity has been slowing. Calgary sales in May were 2,162 units, 16 per cent lower than last year’s levels and similar to sales reported in April. While new listings also slowed by 13 per cent compared with last year, it was not enough to offset the pullback in sales, causing the sales- to-new-listings ratio to ease to 51 per cent. The lower ratio also contributed to some of the inventory build, causing the months of supply to rise. However, conditions do vary across the market, with a range of two-and-a-half months of supply in the detached market to more than five months of supply in the apartment condominium market."

Note that these results are mixed across different areas of the City and these are not blanket results!! Some areas are performing quite well. So whether you are looking to buy, sell or invest in real estate, give us a text, email or call to learn more about how the market is likely impacting your next property decision in your specific area of choice!

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