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🌎📊Will Fed Snap U.S. Dollar’s Recovery?

After selling off throughout the month of April, the greenback finally rebounded on the eve of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement. The U.S. economy is running hot ahead of the rate decision, but no changes are expected from the central bank, which explains why the U.S. dollar pulled back this month despite good data. The question for tomorrow is whether the Fed will stick to script and say that it is still waiting for “substantial further progress” in the economy or finally acknowledge that its goals could be met sooner than anticipated.

The strength of the U.S. recovery is undeniable, with jobless claims at pandemic lows, consumer confidence at 14-month highs, house prices soaring, and retail sales rising at their strongest pace since May of last year. April can be a very strong month for job growth, with more hiring to follow as the travel industry prepares for a strong recovery.

For now, vaccination rates in Europe are slow and some countries in Asia are reintroducing restrictions instead of rolling them back like the U.S. This means that in the near term, even after an FOMC pullback, the U.S. dollar should outperform. The first-quarter GDP on Thursday will highlight the robustness of the U.S. recovery.

Also, the U.S. dollar traded sharply higher versus the Japanese Yen, Australian, and New Zealand dollars, but saw little to no gains against the euro, sterling, the Swiss Franc, and the Canadian dollar. Currently, the situation in Europe is grim, but every day, more people are getting vaccinated.

The Australian and Canadian dollars will also be in focus, with Australian CPI and CAD retail sales scheduled for release. Both countries are expected to report strong data. Canadian retail sales should rebound sharply along with Australian price pressures.

🤩For more information, see our app, "Market Analysis" section.

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What?🤔

🌎📊EUR/USD Slips To New Lows On Good U.S. Data

Stronger than expected economic reports drove the U.S. dollar higher against all of the major currencies. There’s no question that of the G3 currencies (USD, EUR, and JPY), the U.S. is leading the recovery, and data is beginning to show the benefits of a smooth coronavirus vaccine rollout. Seventy percent of Americans 65 or older have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose, with more than a third of the overall adult population receiving their first jab. Businesses are reopening and economic activity is accelerating. As a result, jobless claims fell to 684,000, its lowest level in more than a year. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was also revised up to 4.3% from 4.1%. The U.S. economy is still a long way from normal, but the numbers show that it is moving in the right direction. With more Americans getting vaccinated every day, further improvements are likely.

Fewer restrictions and more vaccinations stand in stark contrast with Europe, where fresh lockdown measures were announced this month for Germany, France, and Italy. Compared to the U.S., only 9% of the German population have received their first shot. We have been bearish euros all month, and that will remain true regardless of tomorrow’s IFO report. German business confidence may be bolstered by the stronger PMIs, but confidence in the region will be restrained until the government gets better control of the latest wave. ECB member Luis De Guindos sees Eurozone GDP contracting in the first half of the year. EUR/USD dropped below 1.18 for the first time since November and it may not find support until the 50-week SMA at 1.17.

Sterling, on the other hand, snapped a five-day decline to end the day higher against the U.S. dollar. The UK is in a very difficult position with COVID-19. Like the U.S., its vaccine rollout program has been quick and aggressive. More than 50% of its adult population received their first shot, and this will pay dividends for the economy. Retail sales are due for release on Friday, and we are looking for a solid increase after last month’s sharp decline.

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