Crypto Hub

☄ Latest statements from the US Treasury Department on China, tariffs, and payments to the population

China:
• Negotiations are still ongoing, with the Trump administration aiming to finalize the deal by Thanksgiving
• The agreement includes the free flow of rare earth metals into the US
• The minister is confident that Xi Jinping will fulfill the agreements

Tariffs:
• The Supreme Court is considering a case on tariffs, which have already collected about $200 billion
• The Treasury is confident that tariffs will remain in place thanks to the powers of the IEEPA
• Cancellation will cause chaos for businesses due to refunds and price revisions

Payments:
• $2,000 is being discussed, but congressional votes are needed
• Targeted payments for families are possible
• Starting in July, “Trump accounts” will be launched with payments of $1,000 for children born on or after January 1, 2026

What this means for crypto

• If the US finalizes a deal with China, global trade tensions will ease
This will reduce the risk of flight to the dollar and support demand for risk assets, including crypto

• Maintaining tariffs means further pressure on inflation
Higher inflation usually increases interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against dollar depreciation

• Possible payments to the population give new impetus to spending
Part of the direct payments always goes to crypto, as was the case in 2020-2021

But there is some good news too)

📊 CryptoQuant notes a strong inflow of USDT and USDC (ERC20) to exchanges — the last time an inflow of this magnitude was observed was before the powerful BTC rally in November 2024.

So there is information about potential movement in either direction.

It's up to you to decide what to believe.

There you have it — in-depth analysis against the backdrop of the news.

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⚡ Whales are buying up these three altcoins despite the market downturn

Large wallets continue to build up their positions, even though the market has been in decline throughout November.

Optimism ($OP)

The largest addresses increased their balances by 3.15% over the month, adding about $54 million to their positions. For $OP, an important reversal level is around $0.47.

Aster ($ASTER)

The most aggressive accumulation. Whales have increased their holdings by 140% over the past 30 days. The total volume is estimated at approximately $75.7 million. The price has already reversed upward amid the inflow.

Maple Finance ($SYRUP)

Large holders have added 3.47% and now control about 1.11 billion tokens. The price is forming a reversal pattern, and a breakout of the $0.53 zone could confirm the upward movement.

(Not financial advice)

📣 The first tradable token index in crypto has been launched

CoinMarketCap has introduced (https://x.com/CoinMarketCap/status/1990389595658502528) $CMC20, the first DeFi-native token index that provides access to the top 20 crypto assets in a single transaction. It is essentially the S&P 500 for the crypto market.

• $CMC20 (https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/cmc20/) tracks the largest coins by market capitalization, excluding stablecoins
• The index operates on the BNB Chain network, which has relatively low fees and easy access to DeFi
• It can be bought and sold like a regular coin, for example on PancakeSwap

Beware of scams, as a bunch of scam clones have probably already been launched.

⚡ The oldest Bitcoin whale withdrew the last 2,499 BTC after 15 years

An early holder from the Satoshi era, known as Owen Gunden, completely emptied his wallet (https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/owen-gunden).

• Over the past few months, he has sent 11,000 BTC to Kraken. That's nearly $1 billion at current prices
• The last 2,499 BTC left yesterday. The amount is about $228 million
• Gunden was an early arbitrageur on Mt Gox and Tradehill, then became an investor and board member of LedgerX
• According to Arkham, he is also listed as a creditor of the bankrupt Genesis.

📈 Japan raises (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-cabinet-approves-lavish-135-stimulus-markets-fret-over-fiscal-policy-2025-11-21/) global liquidity

Japan's Cabinet has approved a $135 billion economic stimulus package. This is the most significant step since the COVID-19 pandemic began.

What this means for the market:
• More liquidity in the global financial system
• If the stimulus drives up inflation, the Bank of Japan may tighten policy, which would trigger a global risk-off mode
• But for now, the effect is stimulating — liquidity inflows usually support risky assets, including the crypto market

😳 Glassnode: (https://x.com/glassnode/status/1991822934122377726) Short-term Bitcoin holders have collapsed the market - realized losses on BTC are comparable to the levels characteristic of the market collapse during the FTX collapse.

🔽Institutionals (and the crowd) sold Bitcoin ETF yesterday for -$903,110,000 - TOP-2 net outflow rate in history.

Outflow from Ethereum ETF ( ) for yesterday = -$261,590,000.

JPMorgan: (https://www.theblock.co/post/379840/jpmorgan-crypto-market-correction-retail-selling-bitcoin-ether-etfs) The correction of the cryptocurrency market is caused by Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF sales.

🐦 The US is selling its Bitcoins

The problem is that most people confuse two different asset statuses:

Seized — confiscated. The coins have been seized, but they do not belong to the US. There are no court decisions. Sale is not possible.

Forfeited — confiscated. The coins have officially become the property of the government and can be sold through the USMS (US Marshals Service).

And that's why the controversy began:

🦯 Arkham and on-chain analysts show about 198K BTC under the control of various government agencies (FBI, DEA, IRS, etc.).
🦯 People decided that since these coins are owned by the government, the US is selling them or is about to start selling them.

But this is not true.

🔵 Most of these BTC are seized, not forfeited. That is, they are seized, but legally do not belong to the state and cannot be put up for sale.

🔵 Example: 94K BTC from the Bitfinex case — formally seized, but the case is not closed. Therefore, they cannot be sold. The list published by the USMS is only forfeited BTC, which is significantly less. This is where all the discrepancies in the data come from.

🐦 No hidden mass sale...