Jewish Weather Authority

SUPER SNOW FINAL FORECAST

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IT’S HERE!!! The changeover from rain to snow has already occurred at the Jersey Shore and other places. As the storm deepens, the changeover will spread across the entire area very quickly. As I have been looking over the most recent data, everything seems to be on track.

Blizzard Warnings reach westward into the easternmost counties of Pennsylvania along the Delaware River. The entire state of New Jersey and the entire state of Delaware are also under Blizzard Warnings. Officially, the National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm which contains a large amount of snow or blowing snow, with winds in excess of 35 mph and visibilities of less than 1/4th mile for at least 3 hours. While areas closest to the coast have the best chance of seeing a textbook blizzard which fit all those descriptions, all areas under the blizzard warning have a chance of seeing blizzard conditions on and off overnight into tomorrow morning. Areas west of Philly are under a Winter Storm Warning.

The storm will undergo bombogenesis with a drop of over 24 millibars with a 24-hour period. In fact, many models bring this to a sub-970mb low pressure. It is going to have the look of a hurricane. Overnight, winds will gust over 50 mph across eastern New Jersey, over 35 mph at times in the Philly area, and over 25 mph at times across the western suburbs. 1-2” per hour snowfall rates can be expected overnight with up to 3” per hour possible where any banding sets up. There is also the chance of an inverted trough developing which could lead to enhanced snowfall in some places. Both of these features could lead to areas of lighter snow and dry slots which could mean very different snow amounts over a very short distance.

My thinking has not changed as far as total snow accumulations. My predictions are a bit higher than local TV stations. Due to the warm ground temperature, I think we lose an inch or two off the front, which I have factored in. Once the storm bombs out and things get going though, I fully expect the snow to overcome everything and start sticking very quickly. I think the main roads will remain wet and slushy but that snow will begin to accumulate on everything once darkness gets here. I would not be surprised to hear the roar of thunder or the flash of lightning in Philly or New Jersey if this storm reaches its full potential. Thundersnow is awesome!

My thinking has not changed. I realize that my numbers are a bit higher than local TV stations, but I’m not budging.

SOUTH & EAST: 16-24”
(30+ miles from Philly to the shore)

PHILLY METRO: 10-18”
(All areas within 30 miles of Philly)

NORTH & WEST: 7-14”
(30+ miles from Philly)

In all areas, there could be some places that exceed that highest number. I don’t expect anywhere to fall below what I am forecasting. I expect schools to be closed for a few days. And as far as that virtual learning BS…give it a break. Let the kids enjoy their Snow Days.

Let me know what’s happening in your neighborhood throughout the storm and send me your final totals! I’ll be awake all night.

Your Jewish Weather Authority,
Joe Costin

❄️☃️❄️ SUPER SNOW ❄️☃️❄️

IT’S GAME ON!!! What could potentially be the biggest snowstorm some areas have seen in over a decade is possible tomorrow into Monday. Sorry for getting to this so close to the event. I’ve been a busy guy with birthday festivities out in Lancaster County. Then I had to go shopping today because I didn’t have anything substantial in the house. Add in a hyper 3-year-old and that leads me to where I am.

So, while this isn’t my typical long-ass write-up (that’ll come overnight), it’s a quick summary of where things stand at this point and my thoughts.

The GFS has been consistently showing this storm for days on end. All winter, we laughed at the GFS for showing some crazy things. Is it finally going to laugh in our faces? Models that were showing little to nothing have jumped on board. The NAM has been showing over 2 feet of snow for multiple model runs now. One of the earlier runs actually showed Atlantic City at 44”, which I have never seen on model runs around here. I think that is grossly overdoing it, but it is amazing to see modeled.

Here are some other models and the average of what they’ve been putting out over the past 3-4 model runs:

NAM: 16-40+”
GFS: 18-30”
NAM 3km: 12-26”
UKMET: 3-20”
EURO: 6-16”
CMC: 3-16”
ICON: 5-15”

All models have this storm bombing out off the coast. How quickly that happens will determine a lot of this. Gusts of 50+mph are expected through much of New Jersey where Blizzard Warnings are in effect. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect in Pennsylvania. 35+mph gusts can be expected in Philly with 20+mph gusts north and west. Local stations are saying 12-20” south and east, 6-12” in Philly, and as little as 3” north and west. I would be very surprised if somebody makes it out of this without seeing at least 6”.

My Thinking:

SOUTH & EAST: 16-24”
PHILLY METRO: 10-18”
NORTH & WEST: 7-14”

I might have to adjust these numbers when I give my full report. STAY TUNED!

Which model do you want to be correct?

Your Jewish Weather Authority,
Joe Costin

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