Josh Morgerman - iCyclone

Category-5 Super Typhoon BAVI is barreling toward the Mariana Islands with estimated winds of 140 knots (160 mph/260 km/h). There's till some spread in the ensemble models, but most bring the center between Guam and Saipan/Tinian early Monday, very near the tiny island of Rota (pop. ~1.9K). Folks on all these islands should rush preparations to completion right away. Any island that gets the typhoon's core is in for an intense impact. From there, the monster storm will take aim at East Asia. This here chaserdude will be heading out to Taiwan or Japan to hunt BAVI next week—destination currently unknown!

BAVI is closing in on the Mariana Islands (inhabited ones outlined in pink). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center now classes this as a typhoon—the Japan Meteorological Agency as a strong tropical storm. Intensification has been slow today, but I expect it to pick up significantly over the next 24 hours. (The expansive, arcing outflow in most directions is the tell; this is a healthy system.) It's very tough to say at this point which islands will be impacted—there's still some decent spread in the models, most of which bring the typhoon's center anywhere from just N of Guam to well N of Saipan. Folks on all the islands (including Rota and Tinian) should be ready for an intense impact from a super typhoon.

Morning light on Wednesday reveals Invest 95W—a good-looking disturbance with decent turning motion. It'll likely become a powerful, long-tracking typhoon, creating problems for the Mariana Islands (yellow) in about 5 days and possibly Taiwan (pink) and Japan (gold) in about 10 days. (The Philippines are likely to get off easy with this one.) It's also potential nourishment for a hungry chaserdude. Me watch closely.

Bright moon over the Bay tonight. Very warm, very still. The tropics around the globe: asleep. The disturbance moving into the Philippines (96W) will bring some heavy rain to the Bicol and Visayas Regions. Down the road, 95W could become an intense, long-tracker typhoon. And it might at some point be chaseable. Until then, I quietly wait.