Quantitative Nepse

📉 When Does the Bear Run Out of Breath? 🐻🇳🇵
​Every seasoned investor in the Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) knows that bear markets feel like they will last forever. But just like every bull market ends in euphoria, every bear market eventually bottoms out in absolute silence.

​Identifying the end of a bear market isn’t about catching the exact bottom; it’s about recognizing structural shifts in investor behavior and market mechanics.
​Here are the 6 classic signs that the NEPSE bear is packing its bags:

1.​ Maximum Pessimism: The market sentiment reaches a point of total hopelessness. Retail investors stop checking their portfolios, and the dominant narrative is that "NEPSE will never recover." Paradoxically, this extreme despair usually signals the absolute bottom.

2.​ Dwindling Turnover (Decreased Volume): Panic selling dries up. The daily turnover drops to multi-year lows because those who wanted to panic-sell have already exited, and buyers are quietly waiting on the sidelines.
​Widespread Sell-offs Stop: The aggressive, market-wide dumping stops. Stock prices stop making new lows and begin to find a solid floor.

3. ​Prices Stabilize Sideways: NEPSE begins a consolidation phase. Leading commercial banks, hydropower, and insurance stocks stop bleeding and start moving horizontally in a tight range.

4. ​Immunity to Bad News: This is a crucial indicator. Even if there is disappointing macroeconomic data, tight liquidity reports, or poor corporate earnings, the market stops reacting negatively. The bad news is already "priced in."

5. ​Quiet Accumulation: Institutional investors, mutual funds, and seasoned value investors quietly begin accumulating fundamentally strong scrips at deeply discounted valuations, preparing for the next cycle.

​The Bottom Line:
The end of a bear market doesn't start with a loud bang; it starts with absolute boredom and stability. While the crowd is too afraid to look, the smart money is already positioning itself.
​Are you noticing any of these signs in the current NEPSE cycle? 👇
​

STC Stock Performance and Technical Summary
As of May 15, 2026

Trend and Price Action
Trend Bias: Currently classified as Neutral.

Price Behavior: The stock is trading above a key support zone (represented by the horizontal green dashed line around 5,200). It has triggered a 20-Day Price Breakout, with recent candlesticks pushing back above the short-term moving average lines following a multi-month consolidation phase.

Momentum and Performance
RSI State: Characterized by Neutral Momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) line is hovering around 55–60, showing steady upward recovery from its oversold lows near 40.

Volatility Profile: Operates with a 6-Month Beta of 0.55, indicating the stock is less volatile than NEPSE.

Benchmark Outperformance: Demonstrates substantial excess returns against the broader market index over all major horizons:

1-Week: 95.2% Beat Rate (+3.67% excess vs NEPSE)

1-Month: 97.1% Beat Rate (+7.90% excess vs NEPSE)

3-Month: 89.4% Beat Rate (+5.13% excess vs NEPSE)

6-Month: 87.6% Beat Rate (+9.25% excess vs NEPSE)

Beat rate here refers to the % of stocks it outperformed in terms of returns.

Order Flow Analysis
Order Flow Bias: Shows a balanced Two-Sided Concentration.

Buyer Dominance: Major buying accumulation is driven by Broker 58 (37.91% at 5,904), Broker 5 (20.55% at 5,977), and Broker 50 (10.48% at 5,964).

Seller Dominance: Liquidation or selling distribution is heavily concentrated in Broker 33 (57.69% at 5,908), followed by Broker 63 (11.54% at 5,911) and Broker 21 (5.83% at 5,975).

Fundamental Quality Metrics
Ratios Summary: Rated as Medium.

Financial Strength Stars: 0/5 stars.

Sector Valuation Disconnect: * Undervalued Metrics: PE Ratio and Dividend Yield are lower/more attractive than the sector averages.

Overvalued Metrics: PB Ratio and ROE are elevated relative to sector benchmarks.

Growth Profile: Shows Year-over-Year (YoY) Underperformance compared to the sector.

SAHAS stock profile.